Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – very weak; D1 – weak
Point 1: We can observe “Shakeout” with very large volume and a wide range, on a weak congestion zone. This movement alone indicates absorption of supply, but the subsequent down-bar indicates that the supply is still high, and the market is not ready to grow.
Point 2: “Test” with a low volume and an average range. Follow up-bar indicates the success of the maneuver.
Point 3: There was a breakout of the congestion zone with a high volume and wide range. In TF M15, a successful test occurred and then continued to grow.
Strategy 1: Consider buying if:
- The price breaks out the resistance level 1.079 and
- «No supply» occurs.
Strategy 2: Consider to buy if:
- The price pulls back to the support level 1.066;
- «No Supply» appears (down-bar with a narrow range and a low volume);
- And the price reverses up.
Strategy 3: Consider going to sell if:
- The price breaks down the support level 1.066 and;
- «No Demand» appears (up-bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
You can search «No Demand» and «No Supply» on a lower TF.
Know more about CONGESTION ZONES
Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – strong
Point 1: There was a breakout of the resistance level, with an average range and a high volume. The following up-bar confirmed buying. In addition, on a smaller TF, we can observe a successful testing after this breakout, which confirmed the validity of this movement.
Point 2: We may see a “Shakeout” with a wide range and very high volume. Because the subsequent bar was a down bar, and the volume was high, we may conclude there is a large supply in the market, which must be tested.
Point 3: A second breakout of the resistance level (113.60) occurs.
- Consider buying if “No Supply” appears (down bar with a narrow range and a low volume) near the support level 113.60.
- Consider selling if the price breaks down the support level 113.60 and “No Demand” appears (up bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
In the last post, we suggested to buy USDJPY in case low volume down bars (no-supply bars) showed up near the previous resistance level at 111.8. Many low volume down bars appeared at those prices (point 1), which provided the entry opportunity. The prices didn’t break 111 to the downside, and so, we maintained our bullish view of the market.
The trade was closed in point 2, on a supply sign. It was also getting near the previous selling zone at 113.5, and it ended up being the starting point for a reversal.
After a brief correction and low volumes on the bottom, the prices kept on rising and soon reached the long-term resistances at 113.8, and 114.5. A breakout of this last resistance at 114.5 (point 3) could provide another long opportunity, as long as one is alert for potential reversal signs, as the trend is already somewhat extended.
Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – weak
In point 1 there was an up bar with a very wide range and high volume. The next bar was a down-bar, which indicates the predominance of sales over buying on the previous bar. VSA also identified selling in this area.
In point 2 and 3 – a series of “Up-Thrusts”; in point 3 the bar with a very wide spread and high volume, which emphasizes bearish interest from the smart money.
In point 4 there was a combination of reversal bars. The first bar was up-bar with a very high volume and wide spread, but close price was in the middle of the bar, which indicates supply. The second bar had a very high volume also, and it confirmed the sales on the first bar as it closes below the minimum. Subsequent downward movement was on low volume, that showed a lack of demand. Analytical Trader also identified selling in this area.
In point 5 these was a confirmed “No Demand” – a great point for a short.
In the mid of the range it’s not recommended to trade. Consider a short if the price approaches the level of 1.13 and «No Demand» bar appears.
You can search «No Demand» and «No Supply» on the lower TF.
On the previous week post about the Yen, we noticed that there was consistent buying in the hourly chart, and that a dip into the lower part of the range would give a long opportunity. This happened, and right in the next London session!
On trading ranges showing VSA buying signals, like we note on the trading guide, you can also wait for a breakout of the trading’s range high. If on the break, the volumes pick up, it’ll be a confirmation of accumulation. This is what happened in USDJPY, and since then, it has been on a long rally, until stopping on a long-term trendline.
Apart from the down trendline, the momentum of the uptrend is now fading, and there is significant supply showing up. This is inevitable on resistance areas, but still, if you’re holding a long in intraday, this is a good time to start reducing the position size, and wait for a trendline break to add into. Personally I’m holding a long daily trade, and waiting to see how the daily bar closes.
If the trendline is broken, it’ll be a long/adding signal. If supply keeps showing up on the hourly, and/or there are low volume rallies into the current selling bar, it’ll be a short signal.
The Pound went through a sell-off in the last days, after testing a resistance at 1.471. The volumes showed supply through May when attempting to rally to the 1.4700 area, but the prices held on below it, with only minor shake-out attempts. Even though there was an up trendline, which shows the long-term trend, a trend can always change, and that’s usually the case when there is professional selling over an extended period of time.
The trade was taken on early London session on the reaction rally, where more sluggish action was seen, and the take-profit set above the nearby trendline.
On the last post I noted that USDJPY was on a trading range, and the closest zone to watch was between 106.200 – 106.300. Prices reached that zone on the Asian session, and did so on wide high volume bars, breaking-out 106.200 to the downside, which also made the background turn to weak. The price was still sustained for a few hours after demand, but a few hours before London’s open, the activity spiked up again and more selling showed up again as a wide-range down bar, closing on its lows. These lower prices didn’t held up for long though, and after one more demand signal from VSA, the prices broke a down trendline and kept the uptrend until heavy supply hit the market and turned it sideways, onto the trading range we are seeing at the present. USDJPY is also getting to the break-out point of 107.600 support, which is important because that is the last point where many sellers got in. I would like to see a small rally after this downtrend, or the background turning weak, to consider taking short positions. Any position will have to be taken at most at tomorrow’s London session and in a low timeframe, as NFP is on Friday.
This pair is near a support, at 79.527, and near a down trendline now at 80.100. Yesterday we have seen more demand above the formed support, though the rally after it failed spectacularly after there was no follow-up to the very high volume candle, with VSA showing a minor Supply signal 2 bars afterwards. The correction is showing low volumes, hinting at a temporary lack of supply, and the background is very strong. Reversals at sensitivity 7 have a good record on this pair and timeframe, even weeks back, and one near the support would be a possible long entry point. The safest would be to wait for the trendline break though, for confirmation. Meanwhile the prices are reaching the demand zone and it’s also important to be on the look-out for selling in the form of wide high volume down bars, like was seen on USDJPY yesterday on a similar occasion. Together with USDJPY, if the price/development confirms it, they could be two good pairs to trade against each other (one long and one short), since they are positively correlated by 50% due to the Yen.
After a wide upthrust bar, also marked as heavy supply, on last Wednesday, the Yen broke the support at 107.62 the day after. It broke with healthy volume, and the prices only stopped downtrending on a reverse upthrust, and later a churn, which are volume patterns that show demand.
On M15 the action can be seen more clearly, and the trading range in the last days is more evident on this lower timeframe. By today’s end of Tokyo session, at 5 am GMT, the market showed supply on very high volume, from the three timeframes – M15, M30 and H1. Right now the prices are trending lower, though on very thin volume due to Japan’s bank holiday on 3rd May. Thinly traded markets can be an opportunity for large players to make their movements however, since there is little to no resistance to any significant organized action.
It would be wise to be on the lookout for more demand/strength between 106.200 – 106.300. To the upside, the price 107.62 is the trigger for short positions, if the supply shown in H4 proves to be consistent. The fact that there are many announcements regarding unemployment on US will surely provide plenty of movements, and make the price reach these critical areas in USD/JPY.
These commodities have been among the biggest rises in prices in the past few months, and coupled with the bond market, give an interesting inter-market view on the global financial markets.
The latest rally has been in a great part, lead by gold/oil groups. Interestingly, bonds have been falling for the past month (interest rates rising) after a climax top, which means there is going to be a shift from interest-rates driven stocks to inflation-driven stocks. Tech stocks, the former stock market leaders, are now laggards, with NASDAQ lagging behind S&P and Dow Jones. Financial stocks, which also lead much of the bull market, have also been weak, despite the stimulus from the Fed and ECB. Getting on defensive/commodity stocks, or staying on the sidelines altogether, it’s probably the best course of action to take at the moment.
After showing persistent demand between the $1050-$1100, and breaking the long-term down trendline, it didn’t stop until major supply hit the market again. It’s good to note that there is an important resistance at $1306, and the supply here might come from the fact that there are major traders taking profits before it gets there.
On the H4, we can see the current action more clearly – a trading range, with a slight uptrend. $1270 has been a key resistance in the last weeks, with significant supply showing every time the prices approach it. Last Wednesday on FOMC’s announcement, the prices got near this price again, and VSA showed another supply signal (purple dot), along with an high volume (red) later, with prices reversing afterwards. The key levels are therefore this resistance, and the up trendline below. In M15 there is a down trendline at $1260 right now, and as the background there is weak, this will be a good timeframe to look for shorts while prices are kept below $1270.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil uptrend didn’t pick up so fast as gold’s in the beginning, but it has been steadier. Looking at H4, it has been showing supply and down reversals at fresh 3 month highs, and it’s getting to the ‘overbought’ part of the trending channel, so I’d prefer to wait for the prices to reverse to the trendline first. If there are low volume down bars or a bullish test in this area, it’d be another long opportunity, because that would show the supply before was overcame.
Following the last update on GBPUSD, shortly after there was a breakout with a volume above average, with strong signals behind. This is seen in zone (1).
8 hours later, there was a churn down bar (2), which was an indication of more buying above the broken level. The long position was taken right after, with the stop-loss below the break-out bar’s low, and the take-profit below the next resistance. After a short correction on low volume, prices kept on rallying, until reaching a climax (red) bar, and VSA showing a supply signal next to it (3). This was a +148 pips move. There is where the trade was closed. Since the background is now weak, there is now a sell signal if the previous low is broken.
Update 7th March: After the low on the supply bar was broken, the prices went down on wide spread, but low volume, which should have been the warning sign to tighten the stoploss. The stoploss was hit above the nearby resistance at 1.42507. Total: 148 – 53 pips = 95 pips