Will EUR Rise Over USD?

Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – very weak; D1 – weak
Phase: Markup
Support: 1.066
Resistance: 1.079

 

 

EURUSD: Hourly

EURUSD: Hourly

Considerations

Point 1: We can observe “Shakeout” with very large volume and a wide range, on a weak congestion zone. This movement alone indicates absorption of supply, but the subsequent down-bar indicates that the supply is still high, and the market is not ready to grow.

Point 2: “Test” with a low volume and an average range. Follow up-bar indicates the success of the maneuver.

Point 3: There was a breakout of the congestion zone with a high volume and wide range. In TF M15, a successful test occurred and then continued to grow.

Suggested Strategies

Strategy 1: Consider buying if:

  • The price breaks out the resistance level 1.079 and
  • «No supply» occurs.

Strategy 2: Consider to buy if:

  • The price pulls back to the support level 1.066;
  • «No Supply» appears (down-bar with a narrow range and a low volume);
  • And the price reverses up.

Strategy 3: Consider going to sell if:

  • The price breaks down the support level 1.066 and;
  • «No Demand» appears (up-bar with a narrow range and a low volume).

Tips

You can search «No Demand» and «No Supply» on a lower TF.

Know more about CONGESTION ZONES

Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – strong
Phase: Markup
Support: 113.60
Resistance: 116.00

 

USDJPY: Hourly

USDJPY: Hourly

 

Observations

Point 1: There was a breakout of the resistance level, with an average range and a high volume. The following up-bar confirmed buying. In addition, on a smaller TF, we can observe a successful testing after this breakout, which confirmed the validity of this movement.

Point 2: We may see a “Shakeout” with a wide range and very high volume. Because the subsequent bar was a down bar, and the volume was high, we may conclude there is a large supply in the market, which must be tested.

Point 3: A second breakout of the resistance level (113.60) occurs.

 

Suggested Strategies

  1. Consider buying if “No Supply” appears (down bar with a narrow range and a low volume) near the support level 113.60.
  2. Consider selling if the price breaks down the support level 113.60 and “No Demand” appears (up bar with a narrow range and a low volume).

 

Tips

You may search «No Demand» and «No Supply» on a lower TF.

Yen Bouncing Off the Resistance

Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – strong
Phase: Markup
Support: 111.80; 111.00
Resistance: 113.60

USDJPY Markup 28-11-2016

USDJPY Hourly 28-11-2016

 

Analysis

Point 1: There was a breakout of the resistance level with a wide range and a high volume bar. The following up-bar confirmed demand. Moreover, on a smaller TF we can observe a successful test after this breakout, which confirms the strength.

Point 2: we can see a “Potential stopping volume” with an average range and a high volume. Because the subsequent bar was a down-bar, this maneuver is not confirmed, however, we should take into account that the strength comes on down-bars, and in the case of a successful test level around 111.80 and 111.00, we will be going long.

Suggested Strategies

Strategy 1: Consider to go long if:

  • Price pulls back to the support level 111.80 or 111.00 and;
  • “No Supply” appears (down-bar with a narrow range and a low volume) and;
  • The price reverses.

Strategy 2: Consider buying if:

  • Price breaks out the resistance level 111.60 and;
  • “No Supply” appears.

Strategy 3: Consider selling if:

  • Price breaks down the support level 111.00;
  • “No Demand” appears (up bar with a narrow range and a low volume).

Tips

You can search for «No Demand» and «No Supply» signals on the lower TF.

 

EURUSD Intraday – Approaching 1.10 Resistance

Dynamic trend: Turned down

Background: W1 – weak; D1 – weak

Phase: Markup

Support: 1.100

Resistance: 1.106

 

EURUSD H1 Trend

EURUSD Hourly

 

 

HOURLY

In point 1 there was an up bar, that looked like a “Shakeout”, with a very high volume and an average range. This is a pattern that shows demand, and on a critical point, approaching the weak congestion zone ahead.

In point 2 there was the resumption of buying after prolonged shaking out on a downward trend.

 

15 MINUTES

EURUSD M15 Trend

EURUSD 15 Minutes

On TF M15 in point 1 there was a “No Supply” bar after signs of strength and resumption of the uptrend. This was a good point for a long position.

 

Suggested Strategies

Consider buying if the price breaks out the level 1.106 and «No Supply» appears (down bar with a narrow range and a low volume). Also consider buying if the price moves down to the support level 1.1, there is a sign of strength and «No Supply» appears. Consider selling if the price breaks down the level 1.1 and «No Demand» appears (up-bar with a narrow range and a low volume).

You can search for «No Demand» and «No Supply» on the lower TF.

How to Trade EURUSD’s Hourly Downtrend

Dynamic trend: Turned down

Background: W1 – weak; D1 – weak

Phase: Markdown

 

EURUSD H1 Chart

EURUSD H1 Chart

 

In point 1 there were a series of up-bars with a wide spread and high volume. This bullish maneuver is a «Potential Buying Climax». The two subsequent down bars confirmed the supply, therefore also confirming the weak congestion zone.

In point 2 there were a series of up-bars «No Demand». These have a special significance, because they were near the bar high of the point 1, and they were inside the weak congestion zone (the zone of previous selling). A good place for a short position.

In point 3 there were a series of up-bars ” No Demand ” with subsequent down-bar and “Up-Thrust” with low volume. Due to the weakness behind, one should look for a breakout of the congestion zone.

 

Suggested Strategies

Wait for a rally to 1.11 to consider shorting, if there is either more supply or no-demand bars.

USDJPY Reaching Important Resistance Before NFP

Tomorrow at 1:30pm BST the NFP and unemployment numbers are being released, which could provide the breakout of critical levels in USD pairs, such as in USD/Yen.

 

Hourly Timeframe

 

USD YEN Trend and Resistance

USD/YEN Hourly – Trend and Resistance

 

In the hourly, USDJPY is on a clear up trend, within a channel, and approaching the important resistance at 104.32. The market has been rising on high volumes, and the current supply is normal in overhead zones such as this one. Depending on the NFP numbers, the breakout could go either way, and both are trade-able.

  • In case the up trendline breaks, you should go to a lower timeframe such as M15 to trade it, as the movement might not be so prolonged without further rallies and tests.
  • In case there is a breakout to the upside, it should be traded on H4 since it’s a trade to be held for the mid-term.

 

4-Hours Timeframe

 

Before NFP USDJPY 4H

Before NFP USDJPY 4H

 

On the 4 hours timeframe, we can see the prices are actually on a selling congestion zone, which reinforces the plan idea that there should be a breakout to trade it.

USDCAD H1 – Trading Congestion Zone Breakout +76 Pips

Before Wednesday’s FOMC statement, USDCAD started showing supply signs above a strong zone. On the FOMC’s statement release, there was a rally, but the prices quickly tumbled, forming what we call an ‘upthrust’, on very high volume. This is what we know to be of a good breakout sign, and breakouts can be traded when it occurs.

The trade was closed after a VSA demand signal from H4, with a narrow range bar behind already showing demand coming in the market.

Right now, the market is approaching the previous zone at 1.315, and we can see VSA showing further supply, with the background still being weak. If the line drawn at 1.311 is broken (which coincides with the latest low), it’s a good confirmation to short the market. As of now, the market is rallying, and it will still have to prove the recent supply is enough to start a major turn. Other way to confirm it, is to wait for the dynamic trend to turn down.

 

USDCAD Trading Breakout

USDCAD Trading Breakout

VSA + Congestions in Pound (Market Analysis)

The Pound has been showing strength in the volumes lately, on the major pairs, with congestions showing a demand zone being formed at these prices.

 

GBPUSD

In GBPUSD the prices just bounced off the demand zone, which were the first long signal, due to the strength behind. The target is at 1.326, from where a breakout can be traded on a lower timeframe. Alternatively, if there is a correction onto 1.319 on low volume, there can be another long opportunity.

VSA + Congestions GBPUSD

 

EURGBP

EURGBP is showing some selling behind, which is good for the GBP. A trendline break would give a trend changing confirmation, for a short trade.

 

VSA + Congestions EURGBP

VSA + Congestions EURGBP

 

GBPJPY

GBPJPY is ranging for a longer time than GBPUSD, and didn’t go down as much as GBPUSD did recently. There is buying behind showed by VSA and congestion bars, along with a strong congestion zone. The plan is to look for a trendline break.

GBPJPY H1