Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – very weak; D1 – weak
Point 1: We can observe “Shakeout” with very large volume and a wide range, on a weak congestion zone. This movement alone indicates absorption of supply, but the subsequent down-bar indicates that the supply is still high, and the market is not ready to grow.
Point 2: “Test” with a low volume and an average range. Follow up-bar indicates the success of the maneuver.
Point 3: There was a breakout of the congestion zone with a high volume and wide range. In TF M15, a successful test occurred and then continued to grow.
Strategy 1: Consider buying if:
- The price breaks out the resistance level 1.079 and
- «No supply» occurs.
Strategy 2: Consider to buy if:
- The price pulls back to the support level 1.066;
- «No Supply» appears (down-bar with a narrow range and a low volume);
- And the price reverses up.
Strategy 3: Consider going to sell if:
- The price breaks down the support level 1.066 and;
- «No Demand» appears (up-bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
You can search «No Demand» and «No Supply» on a lower TF.
Know more about CONGESTION ZONES
On Brexit’s leave decision, EURUSD went down as was expected, fueled by the fear of an economic downturn in the Eurozone. I consider the reaction, 4% less value when trading Euros for Dollars, was somewhat exaggerated however; if Brexit is to have a negative effect on the economy, it will be on the medium/long-term, as the process of UK leaving the EU will be slow, and the trade deals between EU and UK are still in place. As to what institutional traders are doing – they bought heavily by the end of the voting day. This is seen by a close well of the lows, and the very high volume, which surely wasn’t just by retail trading. This consolidation may be slow however, and I expect prices to come further down before a significant rally.
Low volume down bars or test-like bars would show there is no significant supply in EURUSD anymore, and an up Reversal while the long-term trend (Dynamic Trend) is up would provide a long entry opportunity.
After breaking the down trendline mentioned in our latest analysis post, AUDJPY started a healthy uptrend. On the 80.500-80.600 level high volume without any price progress was seen, and on a news event it went down on a wide range, in the 15 minutes timeframe. On a reaction to this down move, while the background was weak, a down reversal appeared (on sensitivity 4, which has the best Rating on this pair/timeframe), where the short was taken. A Minor Supply Signal confirmed the weakness on this reaction. The stop-loss was set above the previous high, and the take-profit near the up trendline, for a +29 pips move.
On the last post I noted that USDJPY was on a trading range, and the closest zone to watch was between 106.200 – 106.300. Prices reached that zone on the Asian session, and did so on wide high volume bars, breaking-out 106.200 to the downside, which also made the background turn to weak. The price was still sustained for a few hours after demand, but a few hours before London’s open, the activity spiked up again and more selling showed up again as a wide-range down bar, closing on its lows. These lower prices didn’t held up for long though, and after one more demand signal from VSA, the prices broke a down trendline and kept the uptrend until heavy supply hit the market and turned it sideways, onto the trading range we are seeing at the present. USDJPY is also getting to the break-out point of 107.600 support, which is important because that is the last point where many sellers got in. I would like to see a small rally after this downtrend, or the background turning weak, to consider taking short positions. Any position will have to be taken at most at tomorrow’s London session and in a low timeframe, as NFP is on Friday.
This pair is near a support, at 79.527, and near a down trendline now at 80.100. Yesterday we have seen more demand above the formed support, though the rally after it failed spectacularly after there was no follow-up to the very high volume candle, with VSA showing a minor Supply signal 2 bars afterwards. The correction is showing low volumes, hinting at a temporary lack of supply, and the background is very strong. Reversals at sensitivity 7 have a good record on this pair and timeframe, even weeks back, and one near the support would be a possible long entry point. The safest would be to wait for the trendline break though, for confirmation. Meanwhile the prices are reaching the demand zone and it’s also important to be on the look-out for selling in the form of wide high volume down bars, like was seen on USDJPY yesterday on a similar occasion. Together with USDJPY, if the price/development confirms it, they could be two good pairs to trade against each other (one long and one short), since they are positively correlated by 50% due to the Yen.
Following the last update on GBPUSD, shortly after there was a breakout with a volume above average, with strong signals behind. This is seen in zone (1).
8 hours later, there was a churn down bar (2), which was an indication of more buying above the broken level. The long position was taken right after, with the stop-loss below the break-out bar’s low, and the take-profit below the next resistance. After a short correction on low volume, prices kept on rallying, until reaching a climax (red) bar, and VSA showing a supply signal next to it (3). This was a +148 pips move. There is where the trade was closed. Since the background is now weak, there is now a sell signal if the previous low is broken.
Update 7th March: After the low on the supply bar was broken, the prices went down on wide spread, but low volume, which should have been the warning sign to tighten the stoploss. The stoploss was hit above the nearby resistance at 1.42507. Total: 148 – 53 pips = 95 pips
On the last post about AUDUSD, I wrote that prices were on a trading range between two major supply and demand zones. I noted that an up reversal on H1 had just appeared, and it would be a good idea to enter if the bar’s high was broken. On the Asian session (9pm UTC) it was broken, and a long was taken here. Prices went on to correct yet again, but more demand showed up, and later another up reversal. This was the entry opportunity #2.
When prices rose up to the supply zone, this was the first warning to start being careful. I exit when there was a supply signal in this same zone. A few bars later, a down reversal appeared, and the market went crashing down.
In M15, given the recent weakness, the background is just showing just that. It would be interesting to see a break of the 0.713 support for weakness confirmation, support which was formed by a shake-out. To the upside, with a strong background, strong VSA signals or up Reversals could be traded above the support.
Australian Dollar went through a 90 pips fall in prices on the US session today, partly because of RBA recently communicating the reasons behind maintaining a low cash rate, with no prospects of raising it soon, and also because of the recent movements in gold, which influences Australia’s major gold exporter economy. Looking at prices and volumes, we can see the same picture – a top in very high volume and several Supply signals, without the volumes slowing down on the way down, and with a weak background.
There are 2 important zones to note in this chart – first, the distribution top, and second, a recent low which showed demand on really high volume. These were the last major professional sell and buy points, respectively, and so they should be the trigger zones to trade, either on a bounce or a break-out – the market will tell. If I see more demand signals near this area I expect the prices to rise yet again, as the professional money is clearly showing it’s buying this bottom, and not letting prices go below their last major buy point.
On H1, what jumps immediately to the eye is the major shake-out, which VSA marked as Major Demand; that major demand is what’s dominating this market. Looking at Reversals, we can see that on the highest sensitivity they have been showing all the tops and bottoms, and just 1 hour ago an up reversal was seen. The break of this bar’s top in the next hours would be a good buy point, and looking at M15, that would also be the break of the recent low volume up bars. The areas on M15 should be then watched, and special attention given to other reversals or VSA signals for exits.
EURUSD has recently shown down Reversals across the different timeframes. In M30, where the rating setting 7 is working best for quite some time now, a down reversal was seen 1 hour ago.
Going down to M15, given that we have seen a reversal on an higher timeframe and using the filter of dynamic trend (200), this is a zone to look for down reversals. At the very least, closing any open long trades if the action develops that way. Here the rating 5 was chosen, but for more sensitivity, 9 could as well be chosen by its rating.
AUDUSD M30 Trade analysis:
- At the time of entry background was strong – it is wrong to be bearish in this place. Only weak background is a sign that imbalance between supply and demand is in favor of supply.
- Strong signal before trend changed. In addition, there is no weak signal. This is also wrong for a short trade.
- Entry was made when dynamic trend turned from green to red – ok.
- The trade was not closed after strong signal appeared in the chart. You should close the trade immediately in this place. Reversal signal is supporting exit in this level.
NZDUSD is moving in a trading range. The area between the upper and lower trend lines is known as the trading range. In VSA terms, the (sideways) market is trading within its range, and will continue to do so until applied (selling or buying) effort makes it break out.
A trader who uses VSA principles will analyse price action in the top and bottom quarters of the trading range, because important observations take place in these areas, as the price heads for the supply or support lines.
The area above the supply (higher) trend line is known as overbought and the area below the support (lower) trend line is referred to as oversold.
One more important line in this chart – long-term resistance. Price already several times reversed near this line. Therefore, it is important to observe price behavior near this area.
- Background was strong.
- Strong signals (2 Minor Demand signals) before trend changed. Reversal signal also confirms market turn in this place.
- Dynamic trend turned from red to green.
- Entry in a low volume down-bar. Stop-loss below previous low.
- Exit by reaching TP level.
Total: + 37 Pips