Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – very weak; D1 – weak
Phase: Markup
Support: 1.066
Resistance: 1.079
EURUSD: Hourly
Considerations
Point 1: We can observe “Shakeout” with very large volume and a wide range, on a weak congestion zone. This movement alone indicates absorption of supply, but the subsequent down-bar indicates that the supply is still high, and the market is not ready to grow.
Point 2: “Test” with a low volume and an average range. Follow up-bar indicates the success of the maneuver.
Point 3: There was a breakout of the congestion zone with a high volume and wide range. In TF M15, a successful test occurred and then continued to grow.
Suggested Strategies
Strategy 1: Consider buying if:
- The price breaks out the resistance level 1.079 and
- «No supply» occurs.
Strategy 2: Consider to buy if:
- The price pulls back to the support level 1.066;
- «No Supply» appears (down-bar with a narrow range and a low volume);
- And the price reverses up.
Strategy 3: Consider going to sell if:
- The price breaks down the support level 1.066 and;
- «No Demand» appears (up-bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
Tips
You can search «No Demand» and «No Supply» on a lower TF.
Know more about CONGESTION ZONES
Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – strong
Phase: Markup
Support: 113.60
Resistance: 116.00
USDJPY: Hourly
Observations
Point 1: There was a breakout of the resistance level, with an average range and a high volume. The following up-bar confirmed buying. In addition, on a smaller TF, we can observe a successful testing after this breakout, which confirmed the validity of this movement.
Point 2: We may see a “Shakeout” with a wide range and very high volume. Because the subsequent bar was a down bar, and the volume was high, we may conclude there is a large supply in the market, which must be tested.
Point 3: A second breakout of the resistance level (113.60) occurs.
Suggested Strategies
- Consider buying if “No Supply” appears (down bar with a narrow range and a low volume) near the support level 113.60.
- Consider selling if the price breaks down the support level 113.60 and “No Demand” appears (up bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
Tips
Dynamic trend: Turned up
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – strong
Phase: Markup
Support: 111.80; 111.00
Resistance: 113.60
USDJPY Hourly 28-11-2016
Analysis
Point 1: There was a breakout of the resistance level with a wide range and a high volume bar. The following up-bar confirmed demand. Moreover, on a smaller TF we can observe a successful test after this breakout, which confirms the strength.
Point 2: we can see a “Potential stopping volume” with an average range and a high volume. Because the subsequent bar was a down-bar, this maneuver is not confirmed, however, we should take into account that the strength comes on down-bars, and in the case of a successful test level around 111.80 and 111.00, we will be going long.
Suggested Strategies
Strategy 1: Consider to go long if:
- Price pulls back to the support level 111.80 or 111.00 and;
- “No Supply” appears (down-bar with a narrow range and a low volume) and;
- The price reverses.
Strategy 2: Consider buying if:
- Price breaks out the resistance level 111.60 and;
- “No Supply” appears.
Strategy 3: Consider selling if:
- Price breaks down the support level 111.00;
- “No Demand” appears (up bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
Tips
You can search for «No Demand» and «No Supply» signals on the lower TF.
Dynamic trend: Turned down
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – weak
Phase: Markup
Support: 1.100
Resistance: 1.106
EURUSD Hourly
HOURLY
In point 1 there was an up bar, that looked like a “Shakeout”, with a very high volume and an average range. This is a pattern that shows demand, and on a critical point, approaching the weak congestion zone ahead.
In point 2 there was the resumption of buying after prolonged shaking out on a downward trend.
15 MINUTES
EURUSD 15 Minutes
On TF M15 in point 1 there was a “No Supply” bar after signs of strength and resumption of the uptrend. This was a good point for a long position.
Suggested Strategies
Consider buying if the price breaks out the level 1.106 and «No Supply» appears (down bar with a narrow range and a low volume). Also consider buying if the price moves down to the support level 1.1, there is a sign of strength and «No Supply» appears. Consider selling if the price breaks down the level 1.1 and «No Demand» appears (up-bar with a narrow range and a low volume).
You can search for «No Demand» and «No Supply» on the lower TF.
Dynamic trend: Turned down
Background: W1 – weak; D1 – weak
Phase: Markdown
EURUSD H1 Chart
In point 1 there were a series of up-bars with a wide spread and high volume. This bullish maneuver is a «Potential Buying Climax». The two subsequent down bars confirmed the supply, therefore also confirming the weak congestion zone.
In point 2 there were a series of up-bars «No Demand». These have a special significance, because they were near the bar high of the point 1, and they were inside the weak congestion zone (the zone of previous selling). A good place for a short position.
In point 3 there were a series of up-bars ” No Demand ” with subsequent down-bar and “Up-Thrust” with low volume. Due to the weakness behind, one should look for a breakout of the congestion zone.
Suggested Strategies
Wait for a rally to 1.11 to consider shorting, if there is either more supply or no-demand bars.
Tomorrow at 1:30pm BST the NFP and unemployment numbers are being released, which could provide the breakout of critical levels in USD pairs, such as in USD/Yen.
Hourly Timeframe
USD/YEN Hourly – Trend and Resistance
In the hourly, USDJPY is on a clear up trend, within a channel, and approaching the important resistance at 104.32. The market has been rising on high volumes, and the current supply is normal in overhead zones such as this one. Depending on the NFP numbers, the breakout could go either way, and both are trade-able.
- In case the up trendline breaks, you should go to a lower timeframe such as M15 to trade it, as the movement might not be so prolonged without further rallies and tests.
- In case there is a breakout to the upside, it should be traded on H4 since it’s a trade to be held for the mid-term.
4-Hours Timeframe
Before NFP USDJPY 4H
On the 4 hours timeframe, we can see the prices are actually on a selling congestion zone, which reinforces the plan idea that there should be a breakout to trade it.
