This trade was opened based on the previous EURUSD analysis.
- Overall background is weak.
- Price was close to the resistance level (1.146) which several times has proved itself in upper timeframes. Here appeared weak signals.
- Dynamic trend turned from green to red. Entry – when the price comes closer to the dynamic trend. Stop-loss above the resistance level. After I saw strong signal I didn’t close the trade, because I thought that bear move still had potential. Strong signal here may be caused by triggering stop-losses of traders who went long when the price crossed previous high. But I moved stop-loss closer in case I was wrong.
- Exit by reaching take profit level.
Total: +112 Pips
One week has passed since previous EURUSD analysis. There was a very weak signal (up-thrust) in the weekly chart. But you need to look at the overall picture rather than one bar’s action. During 3 following bars the market didn’t respond to this sign of weakness. Though the background is weak, for the moment the market is not ready to fall. One of the reasons is that the US Federal Reserve on Thursday announced that it would keep interest rates near zero.
In order to understand the overall picture it is better to look at different timeframes. For example, if after weekly chart we look at daily chart, we can find very interesting picture:
Here we see how Euro has been moving in ascending triangle lately.
1,146 – is a resistance area. It seems that in this area some big seller or group of sellers place large sell-limit orders. Purpose – do not let the price to penetrate this level (they are not interested in higher prices). As soon as the price comes close to this area, sell orders are activated and the price bounces down. In one point this level was penetrated (high volume up-bar without result) and the seller had to defend the level by market orders.
Look at the lows – each time the move down stops higher and higher. The lows become closer to the resistance area.
It will be very interesting to observe development of this situation.
How we can use it in our trading?
Well, now we have 2 interesting for us areas: resistance and support area (up-trendline). We should be watching price behavior and volume near these levels. VSA techniques and Analytical Trader indicator will help us to identify imbalance between supply and demand, choose right direction. Look how accurately the indicator identified supply signals in resistance area right before the price moved down and demand signals when the price was near the up-trendline.
At first I zoom out H4 timeframe. Here I see that AUDUSD is moving in stable downward trend.
Then I draw down trendline with several touches. Price has noticed this trendline several times. It means that now this line is a resistance for higher prices, because traders will place their sell orders at the intersection of price and trendline. The area above the supply (higher) trend line is known as overbought area. Analyzing VSA signals (weak or strong) we can assume whether this break-out was genuine or not.
At the moment we see no strong signals in the chart.
Background in H4 is neutral and in D1 is weak – we should be looking for short trades.
Let’s get a closer look at this picture.
There is no selling climax at the bottom of the market (after substantial falls have already taken place). Selling climax – it is an imbalance of supply and demand causing a bear market to transform into a bull market. The volume has to be extremely high on down-moves, accompanied by narrow spreads, with the price entering fresh low ground. Also there is no accumulation area.
Here we see only 2 no-supply bars (bars in the bottom of the market with low volume). It means that global downward trend is not over yet and now we have a reaction to this trend.
When the price crossed down-trendline – we have 2 weak signals. Major supply – this is an up-thrust which happened on the news that Fed postpones rate hike.
At the moment there are no strong signals, but dynamic trend is still up (green).
I decided to prepare long term analysis for EURUSD before Federal Reserve System will announce its decision on September, 17 for the issue of raising interest rates. A rate hike would likely lead to a stronger dollar, and entice global investors to park more of their money in the United States instead of emerging markets. That could ultimately affect developing nations’ currencies, exports, and even employment levels. Also it will influence further development of EURUSD exchange rate. Right after the announcement there will be high volatility in the market, so it is better to avoid opening trades in short timeframes.
- This was a weak signal on the top of the market (no-demand bar) which marked the beginning of downward trend. Low volume on the top of the market shows that professional buying has withdrawn from the market. The market is unlikely to go up without interest in this move from the smart money.
- Here we see a very weak signal – up-thrust. The price is marked up and premature short traders are liable to panic and cover with buy orders. Traders looking for breakouts will buy, but their stop-loss orders are usually triggered as the price plummets back down. All those traders who are not in the market may feel they are missing out the move and start buying. An up-thrust is usually indicates lower prices. This action brings weakness to the market, but it is important to look at the overall picture – in this case wait confirmation of this effort and further weak signals.
The only wrong thing here is that the price has already moved too far before the entry point. Always important to remember that it is better to go long with the lowest price possible and to go short with the highest price possible.
- The first thing that we should do – this is to find out in which direction we will open a trade. In this chart we can draw an up-trendline (200+ bars) with more than 3 touches. This trendline is a support for prices and it will require effort and money from professionals to cross this support. We will be looking for long entry when the price is near the trendline and if there is no VSA signals (in this case weak signals) which would tell us that the trend is over.
- The background is strong. It means that imbalance between supply and demand is in favor of demand (more strong signals). It confirms that we should open a long trade.
- When we see strong signals near the trendline and there is no weak signals behind, we need to be careful and wait until dynamic trend turns from red to green.
- The price touched the up-trendline and moved up. Dynamic trend turned from red to green.
- Open a trade in entry bar (in this case in the down bar when the price didn’t move too far). Stop loss may be placed lower than support line (previous low) or in the place suggested by the Alert System indicator.
- Exit after weak signals.
