In the previous AUDUSD analysis I noticed that there was no selling climax at the bottom of the market. Also there was no accumulation area. It means that bear move is not finished yet. When the price crossed down-trendline – we have 2 weak signals. Major supply (very weak signal on the top of the market) – this is an up-thrust which happened on the news that Fed postpones rate hike.
- At first background was neutral (right after weak signals). I waited until it turned to weak in the process of moving down.
- Very weak signal above the trendline.
- Dynamic trend turned from green to red
- Entry in an up-bar (price closed above dynamic trend) after background turned to weak
- Exit after strong signal (Demand) which appeared near long term support.
At first I zoom out H4 timeframe. Here I see that AUDUSD is moving in stable downward trend.
Then I draw down trendline with several touches. Price has noticed this trendline several times. It means that now this line is a resistance for higher prices, because traders will place their sell orders at the intersection of price and trendline. The area above the supply (higher) trend line is known as overbought area. Analyzing VSA signals (weak or strong) we can assume whether this break-out was genuine or not.
At the moment we see no strong signals in the chart.
Background in H4 is neutral and in D1 is weak – we should be looking for short trades.
Let’s get a closer look at this picture.
There is no selling climax at the bottom of the market (after substantial falls have already taken place). Selling climax – it is an imbalance of supply and demand causing a bear market to transform into a bull market. The volume has to be extremely high on down-moves, accompanied by narrow spreads, with the price entering fresh low ground. Also there is no accumulation area.
Here we see only 2 no-supply bars (bars in the bottom of the market with low volume). It means that global downward trend is not over yet and now we have a reaction to this trend.
When the price crossed down-trendline – we have 2 weak signals. Major supply – this is an up-thrust which happened on the news that Fed postpones rate hike.
At the moment there are no strong signals, but dynamic trend is still up (green).
In this trade there were 2 major mistakes:
1. There were demand signals before at this price level, so any short should be avoided, unless the price had made a very significant rally.
2. There was no weak signal before the trend change. This is necessary to guarantee there is some smart money support for the down move