Euro/Yen has been ranging since the beginning of January, when looked at from a 4-Hours perspective. Volume-wise though, it has been very active, and understanding this activity is essential to know what the major players are doing.
- First there were several demand signals just as 2016 was starting. This halted the down move. Afterwards there stopping volume when reaching 129.0 area (red bars).
- More recently, there was a major shake-out, painted as Major Demand by VSA – there was a lower low made, yet prices closed on the highs of the bar, and above the previous support. This was a move to hit stop-losses which provided plenty of liquidity for professional buying.
- Approaching the down trendline, there was a no-demand test (pink bar) – as prices penetrated the trendline, the volumes didn’t keep up, which means there wasn’t much demand. On the next bar, prices refused to close down though, on a relatively high volume. This could mean renewed interest in an up move, and the confirmation will be the trendline break on good volume (checking the hourly might be the best). If the bearish test succeeds, as in a failure to seeing a breakout of the trendline and/or test’s high in the next bars, I’d expect prices to drift downwards onto the support. The ultimate level to watch for is the resistance at 129.074.
As it was noticed in CADCHF analysis, price was moving in a trading channel. In the above chart we see how the price has broken the upper limit of this channel. Break-out was made by high volume up-bar. Later price touched the trendline (very often once resistance is broken it becomes support) and continued to rise. There are several wide spread up-bars with high volume near the break-out. Background turned to strong and it was clear that pattern of moving in trading channel was changed. It was time to look for long trades.
- Background was strong
- Several strong signals (Demand and Minor Demand) before trend changed. Reversal also confirms these signals.
- Entry after dynamic trend turned from red to green
- Exit by reaching TP level.
Total: + 125 Pips
Right after my exit in the chart appeared weak signal and signal from Reversal indicator, price turned down.
Reversal indicator is looking for different patterns compare with VSA indicator and quite accurately detects price reversals in the chart. The best view of market can be achieved by using both indicators.
For some time now that I’ve been looking closely at the Yen’s daily movements. Prices are swinging around a resistance made back in 2007, and it’s interesting to note that so far there has been a rejection of new highs. Every time the prices went above it, there was supply and the prices came falling down, which is what’s happening right now. In the beginning of July there was some demand coming in near the up trendline, which sustained the prices, but it may not be enough. The market will next test the trendline, and if decisively broken, we can expect lower prices; if it’s maintained, we should trade according to the action on the resistance, and either wait for a break-out and a test for a long, or a false break-out with more supply signals for a short position.
In the H4 the recent action can be seen more clearly, with supply and really high volumes above the resistance, and where the background had already turned to weak.
In EURGBP there was a short opportunity at the start of the week, as the support was broken. In this setup, one of the important things to watch for are weak signals before the break, which there were on the last market top. This guarantees there is a ’cause’ for the prices to go down, since it means the smart money had started distributing, effectively betting on a successful break-out. From there on, the sequence for a result of +27 pips was:
1. Weak background
2. Enter in an up bar near the broken support
3. Close in the TP level the alerts indicator suggested. Right after, there was a very strong demand signal that reversed the market
EURGBP has shown some considerable supply on the same day as it broke the support. This earlier supply volumes were only matched by the apparently strong volumes near the support, at the beginning of the Asian session at 4th August. I say apparently, because we have to take into account that prices were nearby a previous support, and in these areas this can be just volume from retail traders buying simply because there’s a support nearby.
As the prices broke the support, with moderate volumes on the mid of the Asian session, there was a short opportunity. As prices rallied on low volumes to the broken support there were other possible entries.
There was later in the European session a strong demand signal, and just 2 hours later the market turned on yet more demand signals, this time even stronger. On the break-out setup, as in the nearby S/Rs setup, once you moved your stop-loss to break-even, you could also wait for it to hit TP instead of exiting on the first Demand signal, as in these setups, when the market trends, it trends strongly. This contrasts with other more scalping-oriented setups such as Dynamic Trend, where you should exit right in a strong signal.
1. Background was weak
2. Wait for an up bar near the broken support. Entering on the break-out bar, about 2 hours before, is also valid, as long as it has a volume above average.
3. Set the take-profit on the red-line of the StopLoss indicator for the S/R Breakout setup. If there were strong signals (Major Demand/Demand signals) before they would be the exit point instead.
