Is Aussie Dollar (AUD) Topping in the Hourly?

Aussie Dollar (AUD) pairs are showing some temporary weakness in the 15 minutes to the hourly timeframe, which may result in a short-term reversal. In this post, I analyzed the market’s supply and demand on the 3 of the most traded AUD pairs: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.



In this pair there was supply at new highs, which often pinpoints the beginning of a downtrend – in new (relative) market highs, there just isn’t trading due to old resistances, and so any supply sign tends to carry more weight. Before looking for a short I would like to see another descending top (lower than the last 2) on low volume, a downtrend confirmation.

Note: Non-farm employment change and unemployment rate numbers are coming out tomorrow for USD at 1:30 PM GMT


Aussie Dollar/Dollar 15 Minutes

AUDUSD 15 Minutes



In EUR/AUD Hourly chart, the price is still moving in sideways, but the volumes are telling another story. They spiked on the market lows, which means there was mostly demand in the last 2 days. A low volume rally to 1.44 would be the trigger for a high probability long trade.


Euro/Aussie Dollar Hourly

EUR/AUD Hourly



This pair is near a long-term support at 1.68, and just showed a major shake-out (blue dot). It’s probable that it may form an inverse head-and-shoulders, that given the accumulation, would show strength. Even if that doesn’t happen, though, a dip to around 1.687 (previous low) on low volume would still give a long opportunity with a favorable risk:reward.


Sterling/Aussie Dollar Hourly

GBP/AUD Hourly

Major Forex Pairs Outlook for 2017

By the year’s end, volatility is certain, and coincidentally, there are usually many trading opportunities across Forex pairs.  This year is no exception, and we found 3 trading opportunities among the 4 major pairs, which can possibly be taken by January/2017.


EUR/USD (-4.29% year-to-date)

Euro/Dollar just broke an important support at 1.05, and it’s very close to reaching parity, currently at 1.038. The support was broken following major supply in November, and it kept showing selling volumes on the way down, and during the breakout. After a short-term rally on low volume just before Christmas, it keeps heading lower. Despite the historical lows, solely based on the market’s supply and demand, it’s a good time to short it.

Daily background: Weak


Support Breakout in Euro/USD Daily

Support Breakout in Euro/USD Daily


GBP/USD (-17.15% year-to-date)

There was a selling climax, just before the October’s rally surged. Most recently, at November and December though, the Sterling/Dollar has been showing supply, and the short-term support 1.21-1.23 won’t probably hold. The ultimate support is 1.20, and if there are no significant changes such as VSA demand signals, aim to short in the breakout.

Daily background: Weak


Near Support GBP/USD Daily

Near Support GBP/USD Daily


USD/JPY (-2.05% year-to-date)

Following an accumulation consolidation, that lasted for 5 months, USD/JPY started a major uptrend. To trade the daily, there should be a retracement first, to around 114. There are no resistances ahead, and so an uptrend still has much room to go.

Daily background: Strong


Uptrend in USDJPY Daily

Uptrend in USDJPY Daily


USD/CHF (+3.00% year-to-date)

Similarly to the Yen/US Dollar, USD/CHF also went through an accumulation process mostly due to the strength in the US dollar. The rally has been showing good volumes, and as it’s just approaching an important resistance at 1.032, a breakout would be a trigger for a long trade. The next important resistance is at 1.17 which gives enough room for a favorable risk:reward.

Daily background: Strong


Near Resistance USDCHF Daily

Near Resistance USDCHF Daily


If you wish to trade EUR/USD with our indicators for free, you can try it here.

How to Trade EUR/USD in Tomorrow’s London Session

Background (15 minutes): Strong

Support: 1.0400

Resistance: 1.0479


Trading Euro/Dollar in London Session

Euro/Dollar 15 minutes


Euro/Dollar just broke out from an important accumulation pattern of the last few sessions, that peaked at 1.0418.

  1. At point 1, we can see that the breakout was on good volume. Together with the buying seen in the pattern’s lows, this shows strength, and we should be looking for a long trade at the moment.
  2. This was a testing bar, testing for supply at the resistance. If prices keep staying above 1.04182, there is probably not enough supply for a downtrend, and we can expect further rises in prices.


Suggested Strategies

  • Look for a low volume down bar, or a demand bar by tomorrow’s London session, for a long position. Make sure to close any trades before 1:30pm GMT, as unemployment claims and the final GDP numbers for US are coming out.
  • If prices dip below the critical price 1.0418, re-evaluate depending on what happened during the most recent news.


If you wish to trade EUR/USD with our indicators for free, you can try it here.

Euro/Yen 2-Week Trend is Broken – What’s Next?

Hourly Trend: Down

Resistance: 122.800

Support: 122.142


Euro/Yen Hourly

Trend Changing Euro/Yen Hourly

Euro/Yen Hourly – Trend Changing


Euro/Yen’s been trending for the past 2 weeks, but on today’s Tokyo session, the up trendline that was in control, just broke.

Point 1: In this top, there was heavy supply by professional traders pointed out by the VSA indicator [Free Demo], as the market made a top on high volume, and went into a downtrend in even higher volumes. This happened when touching a weak congestion zone (selling zone) above, and all together, it’s a common reversal sign.

Point 2: On the reaction a few days later, the market reached 122.970 on low volume (volumes lower than average). With such selling behind, this is never a good sign, and the market then went on sideways.

Current time: As the ranges have been narrow for the last 2 sessions, this action can be better understood in a lower timeframe, such as 15 minutes.


Euro/Yen 15 Minutes


Trading Range in Euro/Yen 15 minutes

Trading Range in Euro/Yen 15 minutes


In the 15 minutes, we can see that the market is in a trading range, with a buying zone below, and a selling zone above. The current rally is happening on high volumes, and so it’s likely for the trend to continue until 122.8.


Suggested Strategy

Wait for prices to go to the resistance at 122.8, and look for further supply or low volume up bars in the hourly timeframe.