On January 15th this year, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suddenly announced that it would no longer hold the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro, there was the biggest single-day move for this country’s currency in the last 40 years. Now let’s see how the Franc is doing in 10 months after this event.
Since May USDCHF movements have been limited by two lines: 1. Up-trendline which represented support for the prices (each next low is higher than previous one); 2. Resistance level (at 0.984) – it was a reversal point for the prices. Also this figure is known as ascending triangle. Each time Analytical Trader has detected strong signals near the up-trendline and weak signals near the resistance right before the price turned its direction.
Recently we had a break-out through the resistance. Then the price moved back to this resistance just to touch it and continue to move up (it happens very often when the resistance becomes support). In time of touching there was no big volume (it is called no-supply) and it means that professionals are not interested in down move – they are now bullish.
Now background is strong. The price is reaching two important long-term resistance levels: previous high and the price level which was valid before the SNB unpegged the franc. It will be interesting to watch price behavior near these levels. Look carefully for weak/strong signals and volume when the price is close to the resistances.
- At the time of entry background was strong – o’k
- No strong signals at this price level before trend changed. This is a mistake. Only strong signal + strong background can guarantee that there is imbalance between supply and demand in favor of demand.
- Dynamic trend turned from red to green – o’k
- The trade was opened in a low spread up-bar when the price didn’t move too far after trend changed – o’k
- At the time of entry background turned to strong. It means that imbalance between supply and demand is now in favor of demand.
- We have a long-term support in the chart. This support was established by previous low. Several strong signals (Major and Minor Demand) appeared as the price was approaching the support. One more strong signal here: Shake-out – wide spread down bar accompanied by high volume. But next bars are bullish and we see price reversal. It means that it was a stopping volume which contained more buying than selling. Otherwise the price would have continued to move downwards.
- Dynamic trend turned from red to green.
- Entry – when the background turned to strong in a low volume down bar.
- Exit after reaching TP level.
Total: +105 Pips
As I noticed earlier, EURUSD was moving in an ascending triangle. You see how price several times noticed the long-term resistance. Every time Analytical Trader detected disbalance between supply and demand when the price approached the resistance level (by showing weak signals: Minor Supply, Supply, Major Supply). Once there was up-thrust – a sharp up-move beyond upper limit with wide spread bar on high volume closing on the lows (Analytical Trader detected Major Supply – very weak signal). Weak holders opened long trades during this move, hoping that this was a genuine break-out. Very soon their stop-losses were triggered.
Let’s get a closer look at this chart.
Last time when the price approached the long-term resistance we had 2 weak signals (Supply and Minor Supply). This has led to a price reversal. Right before the lower line of triangle was broken we saw several high volume and wide spread down-bars. The break-out bar was also on high volume. Therefore Analytical Trader can help us to predict whether the price is going to cross support/resistance levels or change direction. We just have to follow its instructions and it will significantly increase our chances to profit in the market.
In this trade I want to point out a mistake which is better to avoid if you do not want losses.
What was right in this long trade:
- Strong signal (Minor Demand) before trend changed.
- Dynamic trend turned from red to green – this is the right sign for a long trade.
- Entry was made in a low volume down bar. This is basically o’k, only one thing – price moved quite far away after the trend changed.
What was wrong in this trade:
- There was only one missing thing – background was still weak. You do not have to go against the background, because even if other components are right for a long setup, it is most likely that this will not be a winning trade. If background is weak it means that imbalance between supply and demand is in favor of supply.
In previous NZDCAD analysis it was noticed that the price was moving in mark-up phase. It is possible to draw an up-trendline with several touches which represents support line for the price. The following trade was based on near-trendline setup.
- Background is strong.
- Strong signals (Major Demand, Minor Demand) near the trendline.
- Dynamic trend turned from red to green
- Entry in a down-bar near the dynamic trend
- Exit by reaching TP level
Total +138 Pips
