USDJPY Intraday Analysis
Starting from the end of January, we saw a steep down trend on the
USD/JPY. On the 11th February (zone 4) we can see large volumes at the bottom of the
market and as a result the price moved up and gained the level of 114.840, changing the structure of
the trend. Afterwards the market was stuck in a range (zone 5) and volumes have decreased. Such price
behavior at this zone can be seen as a no demand signal and is interpreted as lack of interest to
buy at the current price from large players, which prevented further price advances.
On the four-hour timeframe chart we have 5 zones, in which we can see the activity of the large players. Zone 1 is the beginning of bearish trend, where there was Major Supply from VSA on the current and above timeframe.
Zone 2 showed a thrust bar (the red bar), a bar that made a lower low than the previous. This pattern means that the large players tested the local level (117.50), and after confirming the lack of interest to raise the price (volumes were low afterwards and the price reversed from that level), bearish trend continued.
In the 3rd zone there is a continuation of the down trend, however there are also few demand signals below that zone. There is a demand on the daily chart and minor demand on 4hour chart. Taking into the account these signals individuallny we could assume, they they indicate the reversal of the market. However we should not forget that in the VSA method it is important to consider the wider picture of price movements in order to understand what is currently happening. It is important examine the background, which was weak a the time. In this context, these could have been locked-in traders getting their stop-losses hit, below the support.
The 4th zone turned out to be the point of the trend change. There are two large candles with a big volume, after which and the price starts to go upwards, breaking the previous structure of the trend. And the 5th zone, as it was mentioned in the beginning of the post, appears to be no demand signal, which led to a continuation of the down trend.
The hourly chart shows an attempt to make the move up (zone 1), which after churn bars, lead to the rapid fall of the price. In the zone 2 there are few bullish signals such as demand and minor demand. Obviously, they must be also interpreted in the context of general background which is weak, so it is too early to talk about the reversal. It is possible that the these signals were the result of hitting the stoplosses of the traders who held long position in the zone 1. At this point, the best solution would be to search for an entry point for a short position if more supply shows up, and at a better price.
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