The low-volume rally I referred in my last post was indeed weakness, and the prices quickly rejected the trendline. Since there wasn’t a bullish test or strength above the trendline, there was no confirmation; the strong signal was formed below the trendline, which means it could be buying from traders buying at the broken trendline (in analogy with the commonly seen demand signals near an important support). The prices continued to drift downwards, and the market is now rallying, yet again on low volumes. I only kept the older trendline for reference, as there’s another one validated with the last high, which is the one that should be used.
Eventual shorts should be taken nearer to the trendline, though with the recent strong signals at this price level, I want to see weak signals with significant volumes first to prepare for a short trade. On the other hand, a break of the trendline with good volume would be bullish, given the strength behind; the background should also change accordingly.