After the confident 1.42450 and 1.40650 support breakout, prices haven’t managed to make the same thing with 1.38460 support, and now British Pound market tests the 1.40650 resistance level.
During previous 2 weeks bearish market confirmed its sentiment:

GBPUSD H4 - Downtrend and VSA

In point 1 prices tested 1.43890 resistance level which showed the interest from institutional players and was marked by VSA Indicator as W1 supply signal. Before that, in point 2, market showed, that there were no strong signs of the imbalance near 1.42450 support level which meant, that big players were not going to change its short positions to long ones.

There was a 1.42450 support level breakout on high volume which again showed initial sentiment of the market.  As the result of that breakout, the 1.40650 support level went through as well, and the steady downfall of the market stopped at the level 1.3846.

Points 4 and 5 suggest that minor demand signals and low volatility on the bottom of the market is not the sign of the bearish trend finishing. The beginning of a sideways is possible, which is confirmed by neutral background.

Due to the absence of stronger demand signals on the bottom of the market, now it is too early to speak about the change in GBP market sentiment. In current situation it is important to see how the market will behave near the 1.4065 level and above it, if such situation happens.  In case of a supply signal near the resistance, or no demand with a volatile down candle after it, it’s possible to take a short position, but only on weak background.

If there is 1.40650 breakout candle on high volume, it will be the time to start searching for long positions.

GBPUSD H4 – Downtrend and VSA


Having tested the 1.10050 short-term support in the point 1, the Euro went above 1.10440 level, and revealed, that there was no smart money interest near the 1.10684 long-term resistance, which was confirmed by low volumes in the point 2. The point 3 is the place where prices went beyond  the  1.10440 level, and above average volume on down candle with the supply from VSA indicator showing the bearish sentiment of the market.

EURUSD - Downtrend and Volumes on market Bottom

EURUSD – Downtrend and Volumes on market Bottom

In the point 4 there was the 1.10050 and 1.09590 support breakout on high volumes – the good sign of confident bearish trend. Next evidence of down sentiment of the market is the point 5, the place, where prices successfully tested 1.09590 level resistance – it remained unbroken. Moreover, it was the good place for big players to add to short positions – that’s what they did, as the high volume volatile down candle showed. After that the  1.09150 level was went through, and the market eventually paused its down motions by 1.08380 level.

The current market situation can’t be called the end of the bearish trend due to the absence of the strong demand VSA indicator signals and to weak background.

Undoubtedly, there are demand signals in the point 6 and 7, but the volumes are not too high to be stopping volume and the up candle volatility after it, is around average.

So in the current situation the full picture will be seen at the 1.09150 resistance level. In case of high volume breakout candle, previous short positions should be closed and possibly reversed for long positions. If there are supply signals at the 1.09150 resistance level or low volumes near it as no demand signal, it’s possible to open new short positions or to add to current shorts.

1 comment

paolo polo said:

March 3, 2016 at 8:24 pm

Molto chiaro

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