EURUSD H4 Analysis

EURUSD, after a series of failed rallies, met by supply and lack of demand, is now breaking-through a down trendline.

  1. Here we saw significant supply which VSA marked as a purple dot, and afterwards more supply on the way down. Still on this correction, we saw a high volume bar making a significant higher high than the previous ones (3rd red arrow in the chart), though it closed on the lows. This was a fake-out rally that made many traders believe that EU would keep rising, but in the end it was met by heavy supply which made the volume spike, and closing on the lows.
  2. After a demand (blue signal), EURUSD attempted the 2nd rally, and while successful at first, during the Christmas time the lack of activity prevented prices from going upper and breaking a resistance. Supply afterwards (light blue dot) would mark the beginning of another general fall in prices.
  3. Right now, after a trendline breakout attempt, that was met by significant selling (probably from traders trying to catch the down move), it finally broke through in the recent hours. The volume isn’t that high though, and the supply signals before, while below the trendline, could be excessive supply. A rally would confirm the strength, a dip or the break of 1.105 being the trigger. If however there keeps being supply in the market even above the trendline, the prices may not hold much longer and we might see another bearish movement similar to the previous ones.



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